Spatiotemporal dynamics and economic valuation of urban green space in transit-oriented development

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Urban green space in Jakarta accounts for only 5.184 percent of the city’s total land area, despite its increasing vulnerability to climate change and the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. As Jakarta transitions toward a transit-oriented city model, it is essential to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban green spaces in transit-oriented development areas—specifically Lebak Bulus, Dukuh Atas, Manggarai, and to assess its economic value in supporting climate change mitigation. This study aimed to highlight the often-overlooked monetary benefits of urban green space in transit-oriented development planning.METHODS: While previous studies on urban green space in Jakarta have largely concentrated on static spatial distributions or broad city-wide land use changes, this study introduces a novel approach by integrating spatiotemporal analysis with ecosystem service valuation using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model. This represents the first empirical application of such a framework within Jakarta’s transit-oriented development areas.FINDINGS: Between 2013 and 2025, the land cover of urban green space increased in all three transit-oriented development areas, with varying degrees of change across the three locations. This finding contrasts with previous studies that reported a decline in urban green space within transit-oriented development zones in Jakarta. The results demonstrate that all three transit-oriented development areas experienced growth in the economic value of ecosystem services over time. Larger green space areas correlating positively with higher monetary value. Lebak Bulus transit-oriented development contributing the highest total value by 2025. The analysis also highlights the significant role of stormwater retention in the overall valuation, followed by urban cooling and carbon sequestration.CONCLUSION: Urban green space should be regarded as a critical ecological-economic asset in transit-oriented development planning, not merely supplementary infrastructure. To safeguard and optimize its benefits, government agencies must strengthen policy commitment and implement innovative financing strategies, such as incentives for utilizing idle private land for publicly accessible green spaces within transit-oriented development zones.