Five-Year Trends of Trauma at a Level I Trauma Center in Southern Iran

Background and aims: Trauma is a critical public health concern with global consequences, putting significant strain on healthcare infrastructures and societal resources This study examined the five-year trends at Emtiaz Hospital, a government-run level one trauma referral center for trauma patients, and forecasted trends to 2028. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of adult trauma patients who were referred to the trauma center of Emtiaz Hospital between 2018 and 2023. The required information was collected from hospital databases. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model from the STATS model package in Python was used for trend forecasting (P=2, d=1, q=0), with stationarity confirmed via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Results: The analysis included 193,306 trauma patients, with a majority of males (70.9%) and an average age of 37.4±18.1. Traffic accidents and falls increased by 12.3% (P<0.01) and 8.7% (P<0.05) from 2018 to 2023, respectively. Admissions decreased by 15.2% in 2020 (P<0.001), with a peak mortality rate of 5.6% (N=1,892). ARIMA modeling predicted stable admissions (~32,000 annually) and a 2.5% annual increase in traffic accidents. In addition, traffic accidents had a greater impact on younger age groups, while falls were more common in older patients. Eventually, gender differences revealed that traffic accidents were the leading cause of trauma among males (72.1% vs. 65.4%, P<0.01), with females being more likely to fall (30.2% vs. 25.6%, P<0.05). Conclusion: Traffic accidents and falls are major causes of trauma, with distinct age and gender patterns. Immediate road safety measures, including improving vehicle standards and driver training, as well as long-term fall prevention programs, are crucial for Iran’s growing elderly population, along with preparing for future pandemics.