Developing a Simulation-Based Traffic Model for King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Saudi Arabia

Transportation management within university campuses presents distinct challenges due to highly fluctuating traffic patterns. King Abdulaziz University (KAU), which attracts over 350,000 trips daily, is experiencing substantial congestion-related issues. This study focuses specifically on King Abdulaziz University Hospital (KAUH), a major trip generator on campus characterized by significant temporal variations in travel demand. The objective of this research is to develop a validated and operational traffic demand model using PTV VISUM 2025. A four-step framework was implemented, where campus gates were defined as trip production sources and 13 parking areas were designated as trip attractions. The morning peak-hour, identified as 7:15 AM to 8:15 AM, was selected for analysis due to the highest observed inflow of vehicles. Traffic surveys were conducted at seven bidirectional stations along key links to support Origin–Destination (O–D) matrix estimation and calibration. Both static and dynamic traffic assignment methods were applied to assess model performance. Model validity was evaluated using the R2 statistic, percentage deviations, and the GEH measure of fit. The results demonstrate that both the equilibrium static assignment and the dynamic stochastic assignment achieved strong levels of accuracy, with R2 = 0.98 and 86% of links exhibiting GEH values below 5, alongside average GEH scores of 3.2 and 2.7, respectively. This dual-model approach provides a robust analytical foundation for KAU, enabling long-term strategic planning through static assignment outputs and supporting short-term, peak-hour operational management through dynamic assignment results.