Spatiotemporal Trends and Determinants of Cultivated Land Ecological Efficiency in China

As one of the most important developing countries, China faces the dual pressures of declining cultivated land area and deteriorating land quality. Under these conditions, improving cultivated land ecological efficiency (CLEE) has become essential for overcoming resource constraints and ensuring food security. This study utilizes panel data from 31 provinces in China covering the period from 2000 to 2022. CLEE is measured employing a global benchmark EBM-DEA model incorporating undesirable outputs (carbon emissions). Kernel density estimation and σ-convergence analysis are used to characterize the dynamic distribution features of CLEE, and a panel Tobit regression model is applied to identify its key influencing factors. The results show that the national CLEE exhibits a continuous upward trend, with an accelerated improvement stage after 2015. While regional disparities persist, a convergence trend is observed: the eastern region maintains a leading position, the central region demonstrates the highest growth rate, and the western and northeastern regions show steady yet relatively lagging improvements. Kernel density analysis reveals a transition of the efficiency distribution from bimodal to unimodal, with the main peak continuously shifting to the right. The Tobit regression results indicate that urbanization rate, per capita cultivated land resources, multiple cropping index, and rural electrification level have significant positive impacts on CLEE, whereas the proportion of dryland, agricultural cropping structure, and area of crops affected by disasters exert significant negative effects. Based on the research findings, this study proposes optimization strategies such as implementing differentiated regional development policies, strengthening agricultural infrastructure, and optimizing cultivated land utilization methods to promote green transformation. These strategies provide empirical evidence to support the formulation of targeted policies, the improvement of cultivated land use efficiency, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural development in China and other resource-constrained developing countries.