The Trend of Tuberculosis in Southwestern Iran, 2011–2025

Background and aims: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health concern and one of the leading causes of death among infectious diseases. Accurate surveillance of incidence trends is essential for planning and implementing effective control strategies. This study aimed to assess the temporal trends in TB incidence in Dezful, Khuzestan Province, southwestern Iran. Methods: This ecological study analyzed TB incidence data from March 21, 2011, to March 20, 2025. Data on new TB cases and population size were obtained from the Health Deputy of Dezful University of Medical Sciences. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in TB incidence over time. Results: TB incidence was higher among males. From March 21, 2011, to March 20, 2025, the overall incidence of TB in Dezful demonstrated a statistically significant decreasing trend, with an AAPC of –3.65% (95% CI: –5.91 to –1.40). A considerable declining trend was observed in females [AAPC: –5.25% (95% CI: –7.49 to –2.98)], whereas the reduction in males [AAPC: –2.57% (95% CI: –5.28 to 0.10)] was not statistically significant. Conclusion: The incidence of TB in Dezful showed a significant decline among women over the study period, but no significant reduction was observed among men.