Beyond geopolitics: Social license and supply chain risks of critical minerals

This paper interrogates the concept of criticality in critical minerals, particularly as it pertains to the global supply chains essential for renewable energy and clean technologies. It begins by questioning whose interests define mineral criticality, noting that dominant perspectives (i.e., industry, state, and geopolitics) often marginalize sub-national concerns. A fourth dimension, the role of communities and the presence or absence of social license to operate, is widely studied in mining literature but rarely integrated into criticality assessments. Drawing on qualitative data and a case study of Ghana's emerging lithium sector, the paper reframes criticality to include sub-national social dynamics and offers a critical reflection on how social license functions as a risk factor in critical minerals governance. The findings reveal that delays in legal processes, exclusion from decision-making, and inadequate compensation disrupt livelihoods and heighten tensions in lithium-rich communities. These dynamics elevate the risk of social conflict, which in turn increases the cost of conflict for both state and companies. The paper argues that effective risk governance must embed principles of Free, Prior and Informed Consent, equitable beneficiation, and sustained community engagement. Social license to operate is not a static condition but a dynamic process that can be withdrawn, with significant implications for project timelines, reputational risk, investor confidence, and supply chains risks. As global competition intensifies over access to strategic minerals, the governance of mining sites in the Global South becomes important for supply chain assurance. The findings underscore the importance of integrating social dimensions into global criticality frameworks.