IMPACT OF BRAZIL'S TRADE PROTECTION POLICY ON VIETNAM'S IMPORT OF PHARMACEUTICAL INGREDIENTS

The study analyzes the impact of Brazil's pharmaceutical trade protectionpolicy on Vietnam's pharmaceutical raw material import turnover in the period2016–2023, using a panel data regression model with 168 observations from threegroups of raw materials (antibiotic active ingredients, vitamins, excipients). TheGLS results show that Brazil's protection policy (import tax, quota, domesticincentives) reduces import turnover by 3.254 million USD for every 1% increasein the protection index, with a cumulative decrease of 36.77 million USD from2016–2020. Macroeconomic factors such as VND/BRL exchange rate, globalprices, and logistics costs have negative impacts, while domestic demandpromotes imports. The study confirms the hypotheses about the negative impactof protection and proposes solutions such as trade negotiations, supplydiversification, and domestic capacity enhancement. The results have practicalsignificance, supporting the Vietnamese pharmaceutical industry to reduce importdependence and optimize the supply chain in the context of volatile internationaltrade.