What drives young talents’ home-buying intentions? Evidence from China’s first-tier cities

Abstract Young talents are vital drivers of urban social and economic development. However, unaffordable homeownership in China’s first-tier cities increasingly marginalizes this vital demographic. Understanding young talents’ home-buying intentions and their determinants is therefore imperative for policies aimed at attracting and retaining them. While several studies have examined housing purchase determinants, few have considered behavioural psychological factors. This paper employs the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to investigate specific beliefs and background factors influencing young talents’ home-buying intentions. Analysing 1065 questionnaires from young talents across four Chinese first-tier cities using structural equation modelling (SEM), we found that multiple beliefs and background factors significantly impact buying intentions. Behavioural beliefs prove pivotal: young talents perceive homeownership as investment opportunity, source of belonging, and means to secure children’s education. Normative beliefs are influential, with individuals valuing opinions from current homeowners, family members, and partners. Control beliefs—encompassing financial constraints regarding down payments and mortgages, family support access, and settlement decisions—also significantly influence home-buying intentions. Additionally, background factors including gender, occupation, and current tenure shape various beliefs and attitudes, subsequently affecting purchase intentions. This study advances tenure choice literature by employing TPB to examine specific beliefs and socio-demographic influences. In the context of China’s sluggish real estate market, these findings offer policymakers practical guidance for stimulating housing demand by targeting the specific psychological drivers of young talents, complementing conventional economic instruments.