Exploring the Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution of Carbon Storage in Northwestern China

ABSTRACT Land use and cover change (LUCC) is the predominant factor contributing to changes in ecosystem carbon storage (ECS). Studying the relationship between LUCC and ECS is crucial for optimizing regional land use patterns and making informed ecological decisions. However, despite the growing body of research on LUCC and its impact on ECS, there is still a significant gap in understanding the continuous, large‐scale dynamics of ECS over extended periods and the detailed interactions between human activities and climate change in influencing ECS. This study aims to address these gaps by focusing on the comprehensive analysis of ECS dynamics in western China from 1990 to 2020 and predicting LUCC under various future scenarios. This study explored the changes in ECS and its response to LUCC in western China from 1990 to 2020 and predicted LUCC under various projected scenarios: Natural development scenario (NDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS) in 2030 using the future land use simulation (FLUS) model. LUCC has a profound landscape reshaping, marked by a retreat of cultivated land and grassland, and the inexorable expansion of built‐up areas. The spatial distribution of ECS exhibited clear clustering, with overall characteristics of “high in the west and south, and low in the east and north,” closely linked to LUCC patterns and topography. In contrast, low ECS areas are often at higher elevations. ECS in Shanxi Province declined from 226.57 Gt in 1990 to 225.59 Gt in 2020, reflecting a loss of 0.98 Gt, largely driven by rapid urban expansion that converted cropland, forest, and grassland. FLUS‐based simulations in 2030 are 224.88 Gt under NDS, 225.41 Gt under CPS, and 227.12 Gt under EPS, indicating that an ecological priority land use pathway best supports carbon storage recovery. Additionally, the analysis of net primary productivity (NPP) reveals significant influences from both human activities and climate change, with the adverse effects of human activities on NPP being more widespread and pronounced than those of climate factors. These findings offer valuable insights for future urban planning and ecological security strategies in the main urban energy areas.