INTEGRATING RURAL FINANCE, CROP DIVERSIFICATION, AND SECURITY POLICIES FOR SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS UNDER POPULATION GROWTH STRESS IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between population growth and food security outcomes in Nigeria from 1960 to 2023, employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework complemented by sensitivity analyses incorporating crop diversity and insecurity indices. The results reveal that population growth, inflation, and climate variability exert significant negative effects on the food production index, while access to credit positively influences agricultural output. Sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of these relationships, indicating that crop diversity and reduced insecurity enhance food production resilience. The error correction mechanism suggests a strong speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, underscoring the persistence of the observed dynamics. Policy implications emphasize the need for integrated strategies addressing demographic pressures, climate adaptation, inflation control, and rural credit expansion. The findings contribute to the empirical literature on the Malthusian population–food security nexus, offering context-specific insights relevant to sub-Saharan Africa’s sustainable development agenda.