Same events, different trajectories: why countries reacted differently to the oil crisis, Chernobyl and Fukushima

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon technology playing a critical role in present and future energy systems. Yet, historically, national nuclear systems have followed strikingly divergent paths (some expanding and consolidating, while others phasing out) despite facing similar events, such as oil crises or nuclear accidents, occurring abroad. Understanding the reasons behind these divergent paths is an empirically relevant and academically underexplored area of research. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the factors that shape the resilience and continuity of national nuclear large technological systems (LTSs) (i.e., complex socio-technical configurations comprising both physical and non-material elements), analysing four European LTSs: France, the UK, Germany, and Italy. Through a multiple-case study approach, this paper examines how socio-economic, political, technological, socio-cultural, and environmental factors have shaped national responses to three key exogenous events, i.e., the 1970s oil crisis and the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents. The analysis reveals that the pre-event configuration of factors within each nuclear LTS plays a critical role in shaping its post-event trajectory. While France and the UK maintained and reinforced their nuclear systems, Germany and Italy experienced destabilization and phase-out. This study presents a novel framework for understanding nuclear LTS resilience based on the dynamic alignment of key factors empirically identified in the four countries' LTS. Our results have broader implications for understanding the necessary interventions in a nuclear LTS to increase its resilience by investigating and assessing the configuration of factors and their evolution. • We compare nuclear trajectories in France, UK, Germany, and Italy. • We show how pre-event LTS factors shape post-event nuclear trajectories. • We propose a framework to assess nuclear LTS resilience dynamically. • We identify key socio-political drivers of nuclear continuity or phase-out. • We argue that exogenous events trigger change only when LTS momentum is weak.