The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity, Income and Yield in Western Maharashtra: with Special Reference to Kolhapur, Sangli, and Satara Districts

Abstract Climate change significantly affects agricultural systems in Western Maharashtra, a region reliant on rainfed farming and cash crops. This study investigates its impacts on productivity, farmer incomes, and yields in Kolhapur, Sangli, and Satara districts from 2000 to 2025, using secondary data from meteorological records, government surveys, and academic analyses. Key findings include rising minimum temperatures (4.1-4.7 Mann-Kendall Z-values, p<0.001) across districts, variable rainfall trends (non-significant increases in Kolhapur, mixed in Sangli, significant increases in Satara at p<0.01), and yield declines: sugarcane in Kolhapur dropped from ~80 t/ha (early 2000s) to ~32 t/ha (2024), grapes in Sangli from 20 t/ha to 0.54 t/ha, and onions in Satara from 15 t/ha to ~0.55 t/ha. Productivity fell 10-20% due to heat stress and erratic rains, with farmer incomes stagnating at ₹2-3 lakh/annum, declining 15-30% in extreme years (e.g., 2016 drought). The rationale underscores the need for district-specific insights amid global warming. Hypothesis testing via regression confirms negative correlations (R²=0.6-0.8). Objectives focus on trend assessment and adaptations. Methodology employs Mann-Kendall tests, regressions in Python, and data from IMD, DES, and MSAAPC. Analysis reveals 1°C warming linked to 5-15% yield loss. Recommendations include resilient varieties, drip irrigation, and subsidies. Conclusion emphasizes urgent policy for sustainable livelihoods.