Robustness of the Trinormal ROC Surface Model: Formal Assessment via Goodness-of-Fit Testing.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surfaces provide a natural extension of ROC curves to three-class diagnostic problems. A key summary index is the volume under the surface (VUS), representing the probability that a randomly chosen observation from each of the three ordered groups is correctly classified. A parametric estimation of VUS typically assumes trinormality of the class distributions. However, a formal method for the verification of this composite assumption has not appeared in the literature. Our approach generalizes the two-class AUC-based GOF test of Zou et al. to the three-class setting by exploiting the parallel structure between empirical and trinormal VUS estimators. We propose a global goodness-of-fit (GOF) test for trinormal ROC models based on the difference between empirical and trinormal parametric estimates of the VUS. To improve stability, a probit transformation is applied and a bootstrap procedure is used to estimate the variance of the difference. The resulting test provides a formal diagnostic for assessing the adequacy of trinormal ROC modeling. Simulation studies illustrate the robustness of the assumption via the empirical size and power of the test under various distributional settings, including skewed and multimodal alternatives. The method’s application to COVID-19 antibody level data demonstrates the practical utility of it. Our findings suggest that the proposed GOF test is simple to implement, computationally feasible for moderate sample sizes, and a useful complement to existing ROC surface methodology.