Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination Degree between Urban Resilience and the Transport Infrastructure System: A Case Study of Panel Data from 16 Prefecture-Level Cities in Shandong Province, China

The rapid advancement of urbanization in China has led to significant growth in both the scale and mobility of urban populations, placing substantial strain on transport infrastructure and posing a critical challenge to the construction of resilient cities. Consequently, understanding the relationship between urban resilience (UR) and the transport infrastructure system (TI) is essential for advancing regional sustainable development studies. Using a panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province, China, from 2012 to 2021, this paper innovatively integrated UR and the TI system within the same theoretical framework, empirically examining the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of their coupling coordination degree and the heterogeneity of obstacle factors in urban development through a coupling coordination model and an obstacle degree model. Results show that (1) the development levels of UR and TI demonstrated a pattern of dynamic growth; (2) the coupling coordination degree between UR and TI shows a consistently upward trend, with the mean rising from 0.3012 to 0.4018, while the overall level remains the stage of mild imbalance; (3) there is a significant spatial imbalance in the distribution pattern of coupling coordination between cities, with the provincial capital city of Jinan and the economic powerhouse city of Qingdao demonstrating higher level; and (4) at the indicator level, the main obstacle factors affecting the coupling coordination degree of Jinan and Qingdao significantly differ from those of other cities; at the dimension layer, economic resilience and construction level of transport infrastructure exhibit the higher obstacle degree. These findings contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the coupled development process of UR and TI, providing scientific support for sustainable urban development. Based on the research results, policy recommendations are proposed to better guide urban managers in coordinating urban resilience and the transport infrastructure system.