The effect of contextualised match variables on the metabolic power of elite soccer players during English Premier League match-play

This study examined the effect of contextualised match variables on metabolic power of elite soccer players during English Premier League (EPL) match-play across four seasons (2021/22-2024/25), comparing in-possession (MP IP ) and out-of-possession (MP OP ) phases.Match data from 31 male professional soccer players retrieved from 152 regular-season EPL competitive matches was obtained via an optical tracking system and analysed with decision tree regression models.The MP IP model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (RMSE = 1.54;MPE = 2.04%), identifying playing position as the dominant predictor (88% of total feature importance).Defenders exhibited the lowest MP IP , while forwards in a 3-5-2 team formation showed the highest values (MP IP = 15.7 W kg -1 ).Conversely, the lowest MP IP values (MP IP = 12.1 W kg -1 ) were observed when the study team did not employ a 3-5-2 team formation and faced opponents with a ranking difference of less than eight positions.The MP OP model also demonstrated robust predictive performance (RMSE = 1.59;MPE = 1.30%).Playing position was the most influential factor (44% of total feature importance), with midfielders displaying higher MP OP .Forwards had the lowest MP OP in the second half, while the highest values (MP OP = 17.1 W kg -1 ) were observed for midfielders when the team was losing in a 3-5-2 formation.These findings confirm that positional role is the principal determinant of metabolic power in EPL match-play, with midfielders particularly exposed to elevated demands out-of-possession.Tactical structure, match status, and match period further modulate metabolic load, highlighting the need to consider context-specific training strategies.