Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Ecological Carrying Capacity in the Dongting Lake Region Using Remote Sensing and Spatial Modeling

Ecological Carrying Capacity (ECC) represents an ecosystem’s ability to sustain human activities without compromising its ecological integrity, yet fine-scale quantification of its spatiotemporal dynamics remains limited. Focusing on the ecologically vital Dongting Lake Region (DTLR) in China, this study established a finer resolution ECC assessment framework by integrating multi-source remote sensing data within the Driving Forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response–Management (DPSIRM) model. ECC and its driving mechanisms were examined across the DTLR and its surrounding buffer zone from 2000 to 2020. Results revealed a pronounced U-shaped trajectory of ECC in the DTLR, with an initial decline followed by a sustained recovery after 2010, while the buffer zone consistently maintained a 15–20% higher ECC throughout. Subsystem analysis indicated steady improvements in Management capacity, whereas Pressure, State, and Impact subsystems peaked mid-period before declining. Projections suggest continued ECC enhancement, reflecting rising regional resilience. Spatially, ECC patterns jointly emerged from the interaction of anthropogenic stressors and ecological restoration. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) identified proximity to green spaces as the strongest positive driver, while impervious surface (−27%) and infrastructure density (−19%) exerted significant negative effects. These findings offer a scalable, remote sensing-based framework for ecosystem-oriented spatial planning, highlighting the strategic role of green infrastructure in sustaining ecological resilience.