From mass tourism to low-carbon futures: a tiered pathway for sustainable tourism

Tourism fuels economic growth yet simultaneously exacerbates carbon emissions, presenting a critical sustainability challenge. This study examines the complex relationship between tourism dependency, economic growth, and carbon emissions by employing a tiered analytical framework. Using panel data from 2000 to 2020, we demonstrate that increased tourism volume (arrivals) tends to elevate per capita CO₂ emissions, particularly in highly tourism-dependent economies. In contrast, tourism quality, when measured through receipts and yield, can mitigate environmental pressures by incentivising sustainable infrastructure and low-carbon innovations. The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity across dependency tiers, including inverted-N emissions dynamics and rebound effects, underscoring the importance of adaptive, phase-sensitive governance. Policy moderation results highlight that environmental accounting (e.g. SEEA-Tourism) and carbon pricing are most effective when tailored to a country’s dependency profile and enforcement capacity. The findings offer a practical roadmap for aligning tourism growth with climate goals, providing nuanced insights for policymakers navigating the trade-offs between economic development and environmental sustainability.