Evaluating the coupling coordination degree of the Water-Energy-Ecology (WEE) system in the Yellow River Basin (China)

• Assesses WEE system coordination across the Yellow River Basin during 2015–2022. • Identifies water resources as the primary driver shaping WEE system coordination. • Applies coupling degree, kernel density, and obstacle analysis to evaluate WEE coordination. • Offers targeted management insights and policy suggestions to enhance sustainable coordination. Water, energy, and ecological security are fundamental to the sustainable development of river basins, with their interdependencies significantly shaping regional development and environmental quality. This study evaluates the coupling coordination degree of the Water-Energy-Ecology (WEE) system in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2015 to 2022, utilizing a methodology that integrates coupling coordination degree analysis, kernel density estimation, and obstacle factor diagnosis. The research systematically examines the spatiotemporal evolution of WEE coupling coordination across provincial regions and identifies key constraints influencing system dynamics. Results indicate that while the overall coupling coordination degree of the WEE system in the YRB exhibited a gradual upward trend during the study period with provincial increases ranging from 0.020 to 0.068, most provinces remained at a preliminary coordination stage, such as “on the brink of disorder” or “mild imbalance”, reflecting persistent systemic imbalances. Water resource availability emerged as the primary limiting factor, with stark regional disparities: the upper reaches possess abundant water resources but suffer from low utilization efficiency, whereas the middle and lower reaches face acute water scarcity despite higher utilization rates. Furthermore, provincial variations in coupling coordination degree progression were closely linked to heterogeneous natural endowments and socioeconomic development levels. Crucially, the study shows that optimizing water and energy use, especially where resources are scarce, strengthens ecological carrying capacity and stabilizes the WEE system. These findings provide theoretical and practical insights for reconciling water-energy-ecology conflicts in large river basins, supporting coordinated regional conservation and development strategies.