Risks of Rice Farming Production in Karanganyar Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

This study investigates production risk and its determinants in rice farming in Jaten Subdistrict, Karanganyar Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. Data were obtained from 92 purposively selected smallholder farmers through structured surveys covering land use, seed and fertilizer inputs, pesticide applications, and labor. Production risk was assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV), while the Just and Pope heteroskedastic frontier model was applied to estimate the effects of production inputs on both yield and risk. Results indicate that the average rice yield reached 4,722.52 kg with a CV of 22.24%, reflecting relatively low production variability. Land area, rice seeds, and solid pesticides significantly enhanced yield, whereas excessive nitrogen fertilizer reduced productivity. On the risk function, rice seeds and potassium fertilizer significantly mitigated production risk, while other inputs were insignificant. The relatively low explanatory power of the risk model (R-squared = 0.134) suggests that external factors such as climate extremes and pest outbreaks remain the major sources of uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of optimizing improved seeds and potassium fertilizer, reducing nitrogen overuse, and integrating solid pesticide application into an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) framework. Moreover, the adoption of climate-resilient rice varieties, rainfall-based planting schedules, and pest monitoring technologies is recommended to strengthen resilience and ensure sustainable rice farming.