Integrating climate extremes with key biodiversity areas for improved biodiversity risk analysis and protected area planning

Abstract Strategies to track the progress of land protection efforts aimed at preserving biodiversity‐rich areas have recently emphasized a holistic understanding of the regional context. This includes additional information on potential threats from climate change. Extreme climate events are believed to have uniquely disruptive effects on species, increasing the urgency of including extremes in biodiversity reporting metrics. We propose a strategy to incorporate extreme climate indices with spatially defined areas important for biodiversity, using South Africa as an example. We estimate near‐term changes in extremes for Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) from 2015 to 2036 and calculate the expected change in climate hazard compared to its historical average for all KBAs in the region. We find that there is a considerable gap between KBAs that are designated as climate threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and KBAs where climate models estimate increases in at least one extreme event indicator. Notably, only 16% of KBAs with the highest projected changes in exposure to climate hazards are formally designated as climate threatened. Furthermore, only 42% of KBAs with common extreme event vulnerabilities are labeled as climate threatened. Less than a third of the top 10 KBAs at risk for multiple extreme events in the near future have been designated as climate threatened. The high spatial variability in potential KBA exposure to extreme climate events across South Africa combined with the prevalence of nationally governed protected areas offers an opportunity for systematic country‐level review of climate threats at a spatial scale that is relevant to the internationally promoted decision‐making strategies for land protection.