African Swine Fever (ASF) in Manokwari Regency: Impact on pig population, recovery dynamics, and biosecurity and socio-cultural-based control strategies

The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) has caused a multidimensional crisis in Manokwari Regency, West Papua. This study aims to analyze the impact of ASF on the pig population, assess post-outbreak recovery trends, and identify constraints and strategies implemented by the government and local communities. The research design used a mixed-methods convergent parallel approach, involving a quantitative survey of 45 pig farmers and semi-structured interviews with 5 extension workers, supported by secondary data from 2020–2024. The results show a drastic decline in the pig population from 24,530 (2020) to 7,125 (2021), with slow recovery reaching 11,350 by 2024 (46.2% of pre-outbreak levels). Compound growth projections indicate that at a rate of 10% per year, recovery to 2020 levels will only be achieved by 2033; 20% per year by 2028; and 30% per year by 2026. Socio-economic impacts include loss of income sources, reduced access to animal protein, and disruption of pig-based cultural rituals. Recovery strategies include biosecurity outreach, limited restocking, and strengthening farmer groups. However, limited access to healthy breeding stock, further education, and fear of re-outbreak remain major obstacles. This study emphasizes that accelerated recovery can only be achieved through collective biosecurity synergy, healthy group-based restocking, digital surveillance, and continuous financial and institutional support.