CAN ECONOMIC GROWTH BE CAUSED BY THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OR VICE VERSA? AND CHALLENGES TO THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDIA

Abstract This study examines economic growth and the foreign exchange rate relationships in India, using an ARDL model and time-series data from 1995 to 2025. Descriptive analysis finds that India’s average GDP growth rate was 6.76%, while its foreign exchange reserves averaged $55.6 billion. ARDL results indicate that a two-period lagged exchange rate significantly increases GDP growth with a coefficient value of 17.77. The F-test of F Bounds, with an F-statistic of 7.25, verifies the long-term relationship among key macroeconomic variables at the upper critical value. Granger causality tests indicate that economic growth Granger-causes transposition in the foreign exchange rate, but not the reverse. The analysis identifies ongoing challenges to India’s growth, including exchange rate volatility, external shocks, and rising inequality. Policy recommendations include strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals, promoting export competitiveness, and improving remittance allocation to support sustainable and inclusive growth.