Fiscal Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: An ECM Approach

ABSTRACT: This study examined the effect of fiscal policy on Foreign Direct Investment inflows in Nigeria for the period 1999-2023. Foreign direct investment inflows to Nigeria served as the dependent variable while fiscal policy proxied by government tax revenues, government expenditure and government debt served as the independent variables. Time series data for the period studied were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin as well as from the Nigeria Bureau Statistics (NBS). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test indicated that all the variables were integrated at order 1 i.e. I(1) while the Johansen cointegration test showed that long run equilibrium relationship existed among the variable. Hence, the study employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) technique in data analysis. Empirical findings of the study revealed that government expenditure had a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria while government tax revenue and government debt exerted negative and insignificant effects on foreign direct investments in Nigeria for the period studied. The study therefore recommended amongst others that there is the need for government to ensure that increased tax revenues as well as its expenditures are channeled towards the productive sectors or the economy such as agriculture, education, construction, manufacturing and infrastructural development. Government debts are also to be judiciously managed and used to finance critical sectors of the economy. All these will positively enhance economic growth and FDI inflows to Nigeria.