Understanding grassland productivity: a modelling perspective

The vegetation prediction model, ModVege, was employed to examine grass growth dynamics and yield variability across two contrasting regions in Western Europe, Luxembourg and Switzerland. By analyzing twenty years of retrospective data, calibrated with detailed field measurements, we were able to identify significant regional differences: sites in Switzerland demonstrated higher, more stable yields, while those in Luxembourg showed greater inter-annual variability, that was mainly driven by differences in the available water supply. ModVege was enhanced to simulate post-drought recovery, by integrating a minimum biomass threshold, in order to address the challenges involved in modeling extreme drought impacts. This improvement enabled more realistic growth predictions under prolonged water stress and highlighted the critical role of climatic drivers, particularly water balance, as a primary grass yield determinant. Our findings emphasize the importance of site-specific management practices to improve vegetation resilience and yield stability in grasslands. As climate change intensifies drought frequency and alters precipitation patterns, these insights provide a solid foundation for adapting grassland management to ensure both productivity and long-term sustainability.