From fragile states to fragile cities: institutional weakness and urban displacement in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper explores the underexamined role of institutional fragility in shaping urban displacement across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a region experiencing rapid urbanization amid persistent governance challenges. Drawing on a panel dataset of 38 SSA countries from 2000 to 2024, the study applies Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Quantile DID (QDID) methods to examine how political instability, public sector weakness, and legal fragility influence displacement trends. The results show that political instability measured through political violence, refugee outflows, and net migration is strongly associated with rising urban displacement. Importantly, this relationship is conditioned by resilience factors: countries with stronger electricity access and higher public health expenditure experience less severe displacement pressures. Public sector weakness captured by government effectiveness, expenditure, and regulatory quality also increases displacement risks, though these effects vary depending on how fiscal resources are directed toward service provision. Legal fragility indicators such as weak rule of law, corruption, and limited voice further exacerbate displacement where institutional protections and services are absent. The quantile analysis highlights that the most severe effects occur in already vulnerable urban contexts. Policy recommendations call for context-specific responses, including resilience-oriented infrastructure, targeted legal reforms, improved data systems, and more inclusive public spending. The findings provide new empirical insights into the institutional roots of Africa's urban displacement crisis and offer a framework for designing adaptive responses to future risks. • Examines the underexplored role of institutional fragility in shaping urban displacement across SSA. • Identifies political instability as a key driver of rising urban displacement. • Shows how electricity access and public health spending moderate displacement pressures. • Demonstrates that weak public institutions and legal fragility increase displacement risks. • Offers context-specific policy responses focused on resilience, legal reform, and inclusive public spending.