A probabilistic framework for assessing time-risk trade-offs in prefabricated construction projects

Prefabricated construction has emerged as a promising solution to the longstanding inefficiencies of the construction sector, offering benefits such as reduced construction time, enhanced safety, and improved environmental outcomes. Existing literature highlights significant advantages of prefabrication, including shortened schedules, cost savings, and sustainability improvements; however, it also acknowledges recurring challenges, notably schedule delays due to upstream and downstream risks. Despite the growing body of research, there remains a lack of a unified framework that systematically quantifies the time-related risks associated with varying levels of prefabrication. To address this gap, this study develops the Time–Risk Impact Comparison of Increasing Prefabrication (TRICIP) framework, offering a probabilistic approach to assess the evolving complexity and time risks in hybrid construction projects. Using case studies, including the Fenner Hall project in Australia, the research integrates Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) analysis with a comprehensive risk factor matrix, quantifying how upstream, lead-time, logistical, and site-specific risks evolve with increasing prefabrication. The results reveal that while prefabrication accelerates project delivery, it substantially heightens complexity, particularly due to increased interdependencies and coordination demands. The study demonstrates that although prefabrication can reduce project timelines by up to 30 %, it concurrently amplifies project complexity by nearly threefold. By emphasizing the importance of early integrated design, robust supply chain collaboration, and digital tools like Building Information Modelling (BIM), the TRICIP framework provides practical guidance for managing prefabrication risks. This research contributes to advancing time-risk assessment methodologies and supports informed decision-making in prefabricated and hybrid construction project delivery. • Developed TRICIP framework to quantify time-risk trade-offs in prefabricated projects. • Integrated PERT analysis with risk trends to assess impacts of prefabrication levels. • Demonstrated prefabrication can cut 30 % project time but triples project complexity. • Identified critical upstream, logistics, and site risks influencing hybrid projects. • Provided strategies using BIM, supply chain integration, and risk-driven scheduling.