Entrainment and the tropical tropospheric thermal structure in global climate models

Abstract. The observed relationship between stability and humidity in the tropical troposphere has been argued to be strongly influenced by moist convective entrainment (Palmer and Singh, 2024). In this study, we investigate this relationship in fourteen models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the aim of evaluating their representation of such entrainment processes. We define a diagnostic of convective entrainment using the climatological slope of the relationship between measures of lower-tropospheric stability and humidity in precipitating regions of the tropics. While some models reproduce the sign of this slope as estimated from reanalyses, others produce weak or opposing relationships between stability and humidity, implying unphysical entrainment rates. We relate these contrasting behaviours to aspects of the models' convection schemes; models that employ plume-based cloud models and traditional “CAPE” closures, where convection is assumed to remove cloud buoyancy over a specified timescale, tend to better reproduce reanalyses. We also explore the use of the stability-humidity relationship to constrain projections of extremes in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and boundary-layer moist static energy (MSE). These quantities have been argued to be influenced by convective entrainment and are relevant to intense thunderstorms and humid heatwaves, respectively. We find that models that quantitatively reproduce the stability-humidity relationship in reanalyses tend to produce higher increases in CAPE and boundary-layer MSE under warming. However, due to observational uncertainties and model scatter, further work is required to develop a strong emergent constraint.