Evaluation of ecological vulnerability based on sensitivity-degradation-restoration modelling in the Hexi region, China

Exploring the intrinsic mechanisms of ecological vulnerability in the Hexi region is crucial for formulating precise ecological protection and restoration strategies and for achieving coordination between local socioeconomic development and the ecological environment. This study proposes a “Sensitivity-Degradation-Restoration (S-D-R)” evaluation framework which combines multiple indicators to map spatiotemporal vulnerability dynamics from 2000 to 2022. By coupling the geographical detector and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, we identified spatially explicit drivers of vulnerability and their localized impacts, emphasizing the need for geographically differentiated management strategies. The results indicated that the ecological vulnerability in the Hexi region demonstrated a decreasing gradient from northwest to southeast. Extreme vulnerability (53.21% of the total area) was clustered in northwest Hexi and northern Wuwei, whereas moderate vulnerability (31.80%) dominated the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and oasis plains. The mild and non-vulnerable zones accounted for 10.52% and 4.46%, respectively. Between 2000 and 2022, the ecological conditions in the Hexi region showed a slight improvement, with extreme vulnerability decreasing by 3.70%, whereas moderately vulnerable zones expanded by 3.18%. The key drivers included habitat quality, net primary productivity, soil moisture content, soil conservation capacity, topsoil organic carbon content, fractional vegetation cover, and Shannon’s landscape diversity. However, the spatial influences of these factors vary significantly. Habitat quality predominantly affected vulnerability in eastern and western Hexi, whereas topsoil organic carbon exerted dominant effects in western Zhangye, Jiayuguan, and eastern Jiuquan. These findings underscore the need for localized ecological interventions to address the heterogeneous environmental challenges in Hexi region. • A novel evaluation framework was proposed for ecological vulnerability evaluation • It synthesizes key findings on vulnerability gradients and dynamics • Geographically differentiated interventions informed by localized impacts are needed • Natural environmental condition was key factor contributing to ecological fragility in the Hexi region