Impact of Petroleum Product Prices on Agricultural Output and Economic Performance in Nigeria

This study investigated the impact of petroleum product prices on agricultural output and economic performance in Nigeria between 1990 and 2024. The aim was to analyze the dynamic relationship between fuel prices and key economic sectors such as agriculture, with a focus on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Premium Motor Spirit Consumption (PMSC), Automotive Gas Oil Consumption (AGOC), and Dual Purpose Kerosene Consumption (DPKC). The study adopted an ex-post facto research design, utilizing secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Methodological techniques included trend analysis, descriptive statistics, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for unit roots, the ARDL bounds test for cointegration, and Granger causality tests. The theoretical framework integrated Porter's National Competitive Advantage Theory, Modigliani’s Life Cycle Consumption Theory, and the Harrod-Domar Economic Growth Theory. The findings revealed that petroleum product consumption, particularly PMS and DPKC, positively impacted GDP, while fluctuations in petroleum prices significantly affected agricultural productivity and industrial output. The study concluded that stability in petroleum prices and investments in energy infrastructure are crucial for sustainable economic growth. Therefore, the study recommended that the Nigerian government stabilize fuel prices, invest in alternative energy sources, and promote economic diversification to reduce the economy's reliance on oil exports.