An Impact Analysis of Structural Changes and Government Expenditure on Indirect Taxes Post-GST in India: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

The study explored the influence of structural composition, government spending, and Goods and Services Tax (GST) on India's indirect tax revenue. The study employed the ARDL cointegration approach using quarterly data from 2011Q1 to 2023Q4 to identify long and short-term relationships among the variables. It was found that, in the long run, indirect tax revenue benefited from the service sector and government expenditure, but was hindered by trade openness and the implementation of GST. The service sector and government expenditure significantly supported tax revenue in the short run. This research offers valuable insights for researchers and policymakers, serving as a foundation for future studies on GST's regional, national, and international effects. It is one of the first comprehensive analyses on this topic in India.