A metacoupled approach to analyzing multiple shocks affecting multiple systems

Shocks have significant impacts on many aspects of coupled human and natural systems (e.g., countries), leading to various social, environmental, and economic effects. While numerous scholars have studied impacts of shocks on one system, little research has explicitly addressed the cascading effects of multiple shocks on multiple systems. Due to the interacting nature of multiple systems in the globalizing world, there may be complex cascading consequences across multiple systems. Integrated frameworks are needed to help untangle the complexity. The metacoupling framework is one such integrated framework that conceptualizes human-nature interactions within and across nearby and distant systems and has the unique applicability to analyze how multiple shocks spread and interact across systems. To demonstrate the application of the framework, we evaluated the cascading impacts of two global shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war) on the agri-food supply chains in Ukraine and beyond. We defined four shock and system combinations according to the number of shocks and number of systems (i.e., one shock-one system, multiple shocks-one system, one shock-multiple systems, multiple shocks-multiple systems). By using the metacoupling framework, we identified distinctive characteristics and similarities among different combinations of shocks and systems. In each multiple shock combination, the shocks exposed vulnerabilities in agri-food sectors such as trade inefficiencies and overreliance that exacerbated economic, environmental, and social issues (e.g., food insecurity, supply chain disruptions, and surges in food prices). Only evaluating one-shock combinations oversimplify the complex and compounding nature of multiple-shock events, where impacts directly attributed to a later shock may be lingering consequences of a previous shock. Failing to consider multiple shocks across multiple systems may lead to incomplete information and misleading conclusions that directly hinder the improvement of system resilience to future shocks. This study demonstrates the metacoupling framework’s ability to conceptualize the complexity of multiple shocks and recognize their often overlooked impacts in single-shock or single-system analyses. Understanding the interdependence of systems and cross-boundary multiple shocks can promote multisectoral collaboration between countries to enact resilient and transformative agri-food sector change and mitigate the repercussions on United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.