FORECAST ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY IN HOP CULTIVATION IN THE CHUVASH REPUBLIC

The feasibility of achieving a gross hop yield of 3.300 tons from an area of 2.000 hectares by 2033-2034 in the Chuvashia Republic is a pressing issue for the industry’s development in the region. Analysis of key indicators for 1980-2023 yeras: both the hop-bearing area and the gross yield declined from a peak in the 1980s to a minimum in 2017-2018; yields ranged from 3.9 to 18.5 centners per hectare; in the last five years yields have remained at 14.6-18.5 centners per hectare. A predictive model was developed using ordinary least squares regression analysis. The model’s accuracy, based on the R2-criterion, was 0.91-0.98. The results showed that achieving target indicators requires an annual increase in gross harvest of 25-43% and an increase in fruiting area of 27-40% compared to the previous year. According to the developed model, the annual gross harvest should increase by 1.2-1.4 times compared to the previous year. Processing 2.000 hectares will require a fleet of specialized equipment, including 28 hop harvesters, 36 dryers, 40 planting machines and 80 rootstock trimmers. Infrastructure is also needed to produce and certify hundreds of millions of hop seedlings annually. The labor force must be increased by more than 1.000 qualified specialists (agronomists, machine operators, workers), with a labor intensity of 0.5 people per hectare of fertile land, which represents approximately 10% of current employment in agriculture in the Chuvash Republic. Thus, the study demonstrates that achieving the target indicators is possible with a systematic annual expansion of productive capacity and intensive government support for the industry.