Time-Resolved Energy Yield Estimation of Residential Photovoltaic Systems: The Impact of Tree Shading

In this study, a methodology is developed to estimate the photovoltaic (PV) energy output of dwellings within a suburban setting. The primary goal of this methodology is to calculate the contribution of roof-mounted PV systems to individual household energy balances throughout the year, considering dwelling types, different azimuth orientations, and predefined roof-mounted PV system configurations. The methodology factors in PV module characteristics, sunlight absorption, ground albedo, ambient temperature, wind velocity, and other variables. Typical meteorological data from the PVGIS database is used to simulate energy yields. The study models four types of dwellings, creating specific 3D CAD models and simulating energy yields for each dwelling object. Detailed information about tree locations and dimensions is integrated into the simulation to accurately model tree shading effects. Results show that uniform tree heights of 15 m, 25 m, and 30 m would result in yearly median energy yield losses of approximately 15%, 25%, and 35%, respectively. Energy losses can be unevenly spread throughout the day and can also occur during peak consumption hours. This work lays the foundation for integrating real-time and forecast data into household digital twin models and presents a framework for simulating PV system yields in suburban environments.