Cost and Reliability of 24/7 Carbon Free Electricity from PV – Evaluation of Overnight Solar-plus-Storage in Abu Dhabi

This manuscript considers the deployment of PV with battery energy storage systems (PV+BESS) as a resource for 24/7 carbon-free energy (24/7 CFE). Its analysis is based on a real upcoming project in Abu Dhabi that was announced earlier this year to combine 5.2GW of PV with 19GWh of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to create a “round the clock” solar power station that functions as a 1GW baseload generator suitable for supplying data centers or other large continuous loads that require on-demand power [1]. Using this project as a guide, we study the potential of PV+BESS 24/7 CFE resources from both a cost and reliability perspective, including an estimated cost breakdown and LCOE assessment of the announced plant design based on recent market developments and survey of global PV and BESS projects; availability analysis of 24/7 solar based on a simple dispatch algorithm to assess its suitability as a true baseload generator; and discussion of the implications of real-world 24/7 solar for energy system planning and energy storage requirements to support deep decarbonization. The technoeconomic study finds that a total project cost of 6bnUSD, as reported for the facility planned in Abu Dhabi, can be explained by recent changes in the LFP battery and stationary storage market, leading to total levelized cost of electricity in the range of 60-80USD/MWh, with 97% availability as a baseload resource, with exact cost depending on specific assumptions about systems configuration, load and performance. We consider the cost impact of incorporating peaking gas-fired capacity to back up PV+BESS, as is planned at the Abu Dhabi facility [2]. Through this study we demonstrate how changing battery economics are rapidly shifting Li-ion technology towards longer-duration storage applications, enabling higher cost-effective penetration of PV in national energy systems.