The EU's 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework and the future of joint borrowing

Since 2020, joint borrowing against the European Union budget has transformed the EU’s ability to address policy challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine. Following the momentous NextGenerationEU (NGEU) programme, many observers expected borrowing instruments to become permanent within the EU’s public finances. This policy brief examines the European Commission’s proposal for the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and reaches a more nuanced conclusion about the impact of NGEU and the future of joint borrowing. We argue that the Commission’s new debt management operations and dedicated budget increments for joint borrowing indicate that the EU will retain its borrowing capacity. However, these developments only represent a limited step towards further fiscal integration — involving concessional loans — not a watershed moment in the path to a fiscal union.