Predicting Shading Losses in Photovoltaic Plants: A Novel Approach

Accurately estimating shadow impact on large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants is challenging due to the computational demands of traditional methods. This study introduces the Sunveon Model, a novel, efficient approach for simulating shading and mismatch losses without requiring complex I-V curve calculations. The model uses a hybrid methodology, combining a 2D irradiance model with a 3D submodule-level shading model. Its key innovation is the use of a regression model, whose accuracy was validated against over 500,000 I-V curves, to directly predict a string's Maximum Power Point (MPP), significantly reducing computational time. It also quantifies mismatch losses with a new 'Mixed Fill Factor' that establishes a direct quadratic relationship between losses, shadow percentage, and irradiance. Validated against real-world data, the Sunveon Model proved more accurate than two industry-standard models, showing substantially lower errors. A key finding is that mismatch losses for standard cells are about 64% higher than for half-cell modules. In summary, the Sunveon Model offers a precise and efficient tool for large-scale PV analysis.