Educational inequality trajectories and SDG4 achievement: a comparative analysis of global trends (2010–2024)

Purpose This study aims to assess global trends in educational inequality from 2010 to 2024, with a particular focus on measuring progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4). It investigates how educational disparities evolve across regions and human development levels, identifying both structural patterns and notable deviations. Design/methodology/approach The research uses UNDP’s educational inequality index data, covering 195 countries over a 14-year period. Through quantitative analysis of this data set, the study examines regional trajectories, evaluates correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) categories and projects inequality patterns through 2024. Findings The results reveal a global decline in educational inequality – from 20.7 in 2010–18.0 in 2021 – with continued improvement projected. However, large regional disparities persist: Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia show the highest inequality (32.9 and 33.2 in 2021), while Europe and Central Asia exhibit the lowest (5.8). A strong correlation (r = 0.80) between HDI and inequality is observed, though exceptions such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan demonstrate successful low-inequality outcomes despite economic constraints. Originality/value By integrating global trend analysis with regional and developmental classifications, this study offers a rare synthesis of theoretical and empirical insights. It highlights transferable policy models like the “Central Asian model” and supports cross-sectoral strategies targeting persistent disparities. The study provides timely evidence for designing equity-focused education policies to achieve SDG4 by 2030.