Effects of landscape variables and weather conditions on the seasonal arrival and population abundance of the green peach aphid Myzus persicae in sugar beet

Understanding the ecological drivers of plant diseases and insect pests is essential for developing sustainable management strategies as chemical control options become increasingly limited. In European sugar beet production, the 2018 ban on neonicotinoids has led to a resurgence of viral yellowing, mainly vectored by the green peach aphid ( Myzus persicae ). Yield losses of up to 50% underscore the urgent need to understand the environmental factors shaping M. persicae dynamics to improve aphid vector forecasting and virus management. We collected aphid count data over three consecutive growing seasons from more than 100 fields across Belgium (Europe). A comprehensive modeling approach was used to identify key landscape, weather, and local factors influencing the arrival and abundance of alate and apterous M. persicae . To evaluate scale effects, analyses were performed at three spatial scales (300 m, 500 m, 1 km). Landscape factors did not show detectable effects on the arrival timing of alate or apterous M. persicae . In contrast, warmer winters and earlier sowing dates were associated with earlier aphid arrival and higher aphid abundance. The area of semi-natural herbaceous habitat had a positive effect on the abundance of both alate and apterous M. persicae . While this effect was mainly observed for the alate morphotype at the 500 m scale, it had a similar effect across all spatial scales for the apterous morph. The edge density of semi-natural woody habitat and urbanization area favored the abundance of alate and apterous M. persicae in a scale-dependent manner, respectively. Although the effect was limited, increasing arable land area reduced alate M. persicae abundance while increasing apterous abundance . These insights can help predict aphid arrival and abundance in sugar beet and support decisions on field selection, sowing time, and better management strategies to reduce aphid outbreaks and virus transmission.