ASSESSING FINANCIAL REGIME SHIFTS AFTER A STRATEGIC ACQUISITION: THE CASE OF BMCE-BOA

This paper looks at how Banque Marocaine du Commerce Extérieur (BMCE) acquisition of Bank of Africa (BOA) may have altered the bank’s performance by shifting it between different profitability regimes. Using a Markov switching model, we follow Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) from 2000 to 2020 and detect a post acquisition phase of improved profitability, followed perhaps unsurprisingly by a period of greater instability. The trajectory points to efficiency gains in the short run, yet also to a volatility that makes those gains harder to preserve. Taken together, the evidence sharpens our understanding of both the promise and the limits of strategic consolidation: synergies are possible and often visible early, but their persistence seems to hinge on careful integration and the surrounding economic climate. The paper ends with practical reflections for banks and regulators trying to sustain performance in an environment where financial conditions shift quickly.