Adapting to dryness: Two decades of agricultural transformation in Iran’s arid zone through the water-energy-food-carbon lens

Isfahan Province in central Iran, a predominantly arid to semi-arid region. This study investigates long-term agricultural trends (2004–2023) in response to declining water availability, using the Water-Energy-Food-Carbon (WEFC) Nexus framework. By integrating statistical datasets, hydrological records, and meteorological indices, six key indicators (water productivity, economic efficiency, energy use, and carbon emissions), were assessed to understand the systemic shifts in agricultural practices). The analysis reveals a 36 % reduction in groundwater extraction, which has significantly influenced cropping patterns. Although farmers have increasingly adopted high-value, water-efficient crops, the total cultivated area decreased by 14 %, raising food security concerns. Notably, the Crop per Drop Index (CPD) rose by 21 %, indicating improved water use efficiency, while the Energy Use Index (EUI) and Carbon Emission Intensity Index (CEII) declined by 18 % and 23 %, respectively, reflecting reduced environmental pressures. Meteorological drought, as measured by the SPEI index, did not show a statistically significant correlation with crop changes, whereas groundwater depletion emerged as the dominant factor. These findings highlight the need to embed WEFC Nexus principles into regional agricultural policy to enhance irrigation efficiency, promote sustainable crop choices, and balance environmental sustainability with economic viability. • Long-term analysis of WEFC nexus indices in a dry and semi-arid region. • Analysis of the effects of hydroclimate and water resources drivers on agriculture. • Analysis of systemic dynamics between WEFC indicators and hydroclimate drivers. • Identification of groundwater depletion as dominant factor in long-term cropping patterns.