Thermal behavior of permeable pavements under freeze–thaw conditions

This study develops and validates a one-dimensional (1D) physics-based model for simulating freeze-thaw dynamics in permeable pavements, using field data from a test site in Aalborg, Denmark (2022-2024) that includes continuous temperature measurements at 3, 6, and 30 cm depths and water table observations. The model, adapted from the NOAA framework, incorporates laboratory-measured thermal properties for the engineered pavement layers and uses a custom soil moisture profile to integrate the observed water table data. The calibrated model demonstrated excellent performance, particularly in the permeable subbase layer (30 cm depth), which serves as a rigorous test of the model’s physical realism. At this depth, the model achieved high Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.995 for the entire period and 0.990 for the second winter period. Results highlight the critical importance of calibrating global thermal conductivity factors to accurately simulate pavement temperatures, particularly during winter freeze-thaw cycles. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that adjustments to these thermal properties led to substantial improvements in model accuracy in the overlying permeable subbase. While variations in subgrade porosity had minimal impact at shallow depths, they significantly influenced thermal behavior in the subbase. Accurate thermal dynamics predictions are critical for assessing freeze-thaw induced damage mechanisms such as frost heave and thaw settlement, which impact pavement durability. Future research should build upon this thermal foundation by integrating more complex moisture and ice content models to enable physical damage prediction. The developed approach represents a crucial step towards supporting the long-term resilience of permeable pavement systems in cold climates. • A physics-based model was adapted for permeable pavements using lab-measured thermal properties and field data from a Danish test site (2022-2024) with multi-depth temperature and water table sensors. • Excellent model performance was achieved in the challenging permeable subbase (30 cm depth), with NSE values of 0.995 (entire period) and 0.990 (second winter). • Calibrating thermal conductivity and heat capacity was key to accurately simulating the permeable pavement layer’s thermal response. • The validated thermal model provides a foundational tool for assessing the long-term resilience of permeable pavements in cold climates.