A framework for evaluating thaw settlement in permafrost regions

Thawing permafrost, driven by climate change and anthropogenic activities, presents escalating challenges for infrastructure in northern regions. Traditional design strategies focused on maintaining frozen ground are increasingly unsustainable due to accelerated warming and extreme weather events. This paper introduces a Thaw Settlement Evaluation Framework for assessing thaw settlement at regional and site-specific scales. The framework comprises (1) regional thaw settlement hazard assessments to identify zones prone to thaw settlement and (2) site-specific thaw strain estimations for quantitative settlement predictions. By consolidating established methodologies, such as thaw hazard indices and empirical thaw strain estimation tools, the framework provides adaptable workflows tailored to the specific needs and data availability of the project. Key outputs include thaw settlement hazard levels, thaw strain estimation, and stress–strain characterization, which together offer actionable insights to support infrastructure planning, design, and maintenance in permafrost regions. By consolidating resources and streamlining decision-making, the framework equips practitioners, planners, and decision-makers with practical guidance to address challenges of thawing permafrost.