Empowering low-carbon energy transition with new-quality productive forces in China: Mechanisms and empirical examination

Vigorously fostering new quality productive forces (NQP) constitutes a crucial pathway for advancing economic growth and enabling the low-carbon transformation of China’s energy system. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces, this study develops an evaluation framework to assess the impact of NQP on low-carbon energy transition performance (LETP) and to examine its underlying transmission mechanisms. The empirical results reveal that: (1) both LETP and NQP in China exhibit a steady upward trajectory; (2) NQP exerts a significant positive effect on LETP, with stronger impacts observed in regions characterized by a lower share of coal-fired power generation and stricter environmental regulation; (3) mechanism analysis further indicates that industrial upgrading, improvements in total factor productivity, and green technological innovation are the key channels through which NQP enhances LETP; and (4) results from the spatial Durbin model suggest that NQP not only directly promotes LETP but also generates pronounced positive spatial spillover effects. Overall, this study provides robust empirical evidence on the nexus between NQP and China’s LETP, offering valuable insights for policymakers in refining strategies for green development.