Synergies between bird habitat and recreational ecosystem service for urban development and biodiversity conservation in a coastal metropolitan region

• An integrated bird habitat assessment encompassing forest-dwelling and waterfowl species was conducted. • A comprehensive evaluation of recreational ecosystem service including four key dimensions was performed. • There are four different types of spatial conflicts between human activities and bird habitats. • Human-bird cooperation can enhance recreational ecosystem service and promote bird conservation. The rapid urbanization of coastal areas has made the coordinated development of human well-being and biodiversity a critical issue. Achieving a balance between habitat conservation and the growing demand for recreational use in coastal wetlands is essential for fostering a win–win situation for both bird habitats and human recreational services, thereby contributing to biodiversity conservation and sustainable urban socio-economic development. This study focuses on Hangzhou Bay, an area characterized by both high bird diversity and rapid urbanization. The Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) model is used to evaluate bird habitat suitability. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and spatial analysis assess recreational service capacity across four dimensions: recreational resources, location, quality, and vitality. A bivariate spatial correlation analysis reveals the trade-off and synergetic relationship between bird habitat suitability and recreational service capacity. Subsequently, four bird-human conflict scenarios are modeled using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to predict land use changes by 2040. The study’s key findings include: (1) High-suitability bird areas are concentrated in wetlands, water bodies, and forests, whereas low-suitability areas are impacted by human development; (2) high recreational service capacity areas are primarily in the city center, in contrast, ecologically rich areas have low recreational service capacity but significant development potential; (3) a significant negative correlation exists between bird habitat suitability and recreational service capacity; and (4) the human-bird win–win scenario effectively balances ecological protection and recreational needs. This paper highlights the importance of integrating ecological protection with recreational development, proposing that the human-bird win–win scenario offers theoretical support and practical guidance to address the challenges of urbanization in coastal wetlands. They hold important sustainable development significance.