Multivariate statistical detection of interactions between the use of ecosystem services and willingness to protect the Kaya Kambe (Kenya) based on survey data

Background: Kenyan coastal forests comprise about 145 fragmented islands of different size and protection status. Cultural ecosystem services provided by Kaya forests for the Mijikenda community in Kenya have helped to preserve relevant parts of this tropical landscape, which today, however, are exposed to strong land use pressures due to a growing population living in poverty. With regard to conservation measures for the Kaya, there is an urgent need to analyse the human–environment relationship of the local population. The aim of the study was to identify the factors and their interactions on the willingness of the local population to protect Kaya Kambe, which was defined as a dependent variable in two statistical models. Methods. The data needed were collected in the year 2022 by means of a questionnaire. The two statistical models were carried out using Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection. In the first model, those descriptive variables were used that were also used in the hypothesis test based on individual contingency tables not presented here. This hypothesis-verifying approach was supplemented by a hypothesis-explorative second model. It also used descriptive variables that were not considered in the hypothesis testing. Results: The first model confirms the following interacting constraints on willingness to protect: importance of Kaya trees, personal benefit from protecting Kayas, importance of Kaya animals and usefulness of Kayas as a source of minerals. The second model discovers the following additional influences: access to Kaya, independent tree planting in own plot and in Kaya, monthly income, knowledge of national laws governing the use of Kayas, cultural value of Kayas, and Kayas as a source of energy. Conclusions The following recommendations were derived from the results and their discussion: creation of alternatives for the extraction of construction timber and firewood, participation of the local population in sustainable forest management, creation of alternative sources of income, enabling reforestation on private land and in the Kaya, as well as education and awareness-raising measures.