Unipolarity and the Transition to Post-Unipolarity: Explaining Behavior under Unipolarity and in the Post-Unipolar Era

Abstract Under unipolarity, the hegemonic power enjoys high levels of freedom of action, particularly with regard to the resort to the use of force because of the absence of a countervailing coalition. I share this key point about unipolarity with the path-breaking work of Nuno Monteiro on polarity. I also agree with Monteiro that such freedom of action might produce some of the conditions for war, making unipolarity not necessarily peaceful. However, this paper highlights some of the differences with Monteiro’s view regarding hegemonic behavior under unipolarity. Monteiro underlines the material character of the unipole’s strategies. In contrast, I argue that the domestic character of the unipole plays a key role in shaping its strategies even if the conditions for their emergence are mostly structural. In addition to the distribution of capabilities under unipolarity, there is a second independent variable, not explicitly specified by Monteiro. This variable refers to the level of threat posed to the unipole. This factor is quite relevant for understanding the strategy of the unipole, specifically affecting the level and type of military interventions. I also address some of the effects of this strategy on the conduct of the rising powers, especially China, in the post-unipolar era. This analysis will be conducted within the framework of examining the effects of the transition away from unipolarity on the changing strategies of both the former hegemon and its rising competitors.