CBDT Framework Canadian Validation: Cross-National Evidence of Cultural Homogeneity Effects

This working paper provides the first cross-national validation of the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, extending U.S.-calibrated predictions to Canadian provinces. Key Findings:- Canadian validation achieves 1.1% mean absolute error (MAE) after metric reconciliation- Represents 78% improvement over U.S. out-of-sample validation (5.0% MAE)- Superior performance attributable to cultural homogeneity in safety priorities, regulatory trust, and enforcement perceptions- Sensitivity analysis confirms robustness: Canadian MAE ranges 1.3-5.5% across all tested multiplier variations Methodological Contributions:- Metric taxonomy reconciliation addressing measurement heterogeneity (Last Purchase vs. Transaction Count vs. Expenditure Share)- Empirically-calibrated conversion multipliers validated across multiple Canadian data sources- Seven-dimension cultural homogeneity framework with quantitative evidence Results suggest behavioral-utility frameworks achieve higher predictive accuracy in culturally homogeneous populations with unified federal regulatory regimes. Findings have direct implications for U.S. federal vs. state-level cannabis policy debates. Phase 2 expansion (Q1-Q2 2026) will provide formal statistical inference with panel regression (n=392 state-quarters) and consumer survey (n=2,000). Related: Framework calibration paper at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17593077Replication data: Harvard Dataverse https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/WXKKWR