GLOBAL OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND INFLATION DYNAMICS IN INDIA: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS (2016-2024)

This dissertation quantitatively examines the short-run relationship between the Indian Basket Crude Price and CPI Combined Annual Inflation in India, utilizing a time-series analysis of 33 quarterly observations (2016–2024). The methodology involved three sequential steps: 1. Correlation Analysis yielded a weak positive association (r =+0.2935$). 2. Simple Regression Analysis demonstrated severely low explanatory power (R2=8.61%) and was found to be statistically insignificant (P=0.0974$). 3. Hypothesis Testing formally rejected the alternative hypothesis that the crude price is a significant linear determinant of inflation. The study concludes that the external Crude Price Shock is not a reliable determinant of domestic inflation due to effective Fiscal Buffers (tax management) and successful Monetary Policy anchoring expectations. This outcome affirms the dominance of structural, domestic factors in driving Indian price dynamics. Keywords: Crude Price Shock, CPI Inflation, Simple Regression, Fiscal Buffers, Policy Insignificance.