Heat stress causes economic and welfare disparities across agroecological zones in Burkina Faso

Increased warming due to climate change can induce heat stress in humans and adversely affect labour productivity due to heat-related morbidity. Here, we use a simulation model to examine the effects of heat stress, through declined labour capacity under +1.5 °C and 3.5 °C warming scenarios on agriculture and welfare across the three agroecological zones (Sudanian, Sudano-Sahelian, and Sahelian) in Burkina Faso. In the two scenarios, domestic production declines, with outdoor labour-intensive sectors such as cropping and mining being the most affected, reducing gross domestic product by 9% and 20%, respectively. All households lose welfare in all scenarios except non-poor households in the +1.5 °C scenario. Across zones, crop production declines strongest in the crop-producing Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian zones. In contrast, relative welfare losses are strongest for households in the Sahelian zone. The study highlights the most vulnerable sectors, household groups, and zones requiring urgent attention in heat stress adaptation and mitigation policies.