Strategic Rebalancing in the Contested Global Order: The United States’ Cost–Benefit Analysis of Foreign Policy Regarding Greece and Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract This article examines the evolution of the United States’ balancing strategies toward Türkiye and Greece using Kai He’s concepts of positive and negative balancing. Türkiye’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system came with strategic and political costs, while Greece has emerged as a more reliable partner, offering expanded military access and normative alignment. The author conceptualizes cost–benefit analysis as a strategic logic shaped by global and domestic political dynamics. Drawing on rationalist and neoclassical realist theories, the author shows how the United States has increasingly pursued positive balancing in its foreign policy toward Greece and negative balancing toward Türkiye – reflecting shifting assessments of partner reliability and strategic value. The author concludes that US policy has been guided by material calculations such as cohesion, deterrence, and access, but that these are increasingly filtered through normative concerns including illiberalism, alliance credibility, and the coherence of the international order.